Argument 14，第一篇，求狠批. (包括攻击框架)
19400
【Argument 14】The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine.
"A recent study rating 300 male and female Mentian advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. These results suggest that if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
[提纲]
1. 样本比例是否足够，样本是否足够随机？也许survey选取的样本大多是年龄偏大的人群，所以会比较少眠，但对大部分人而言平均每晚的睡觉时间还是需要维持8小时以上，才能精力充沛，更高效率地工作。
2. CEO每晚睡眠时间和公司利润之间的关系。因为可能像1所述，这些睡眠少的CEO年龄偏大，所以相对社会阅历多一些，人脉广一些，对公司发展会有所帮助。 但巧妇难为无米之炊，一家公司能否盈利，主要还是看公司产品或服务质量，市场需求，公司员工执行力等。
3.即使公司睡眠少的CEO能带来更高的利润，建议也未必有效，甚至会有副作用。1) CEO 不能代表所有员工， 有些岗位上的员工需要高质量长时间的睡眠， 如果睡眠时间少，会使得员工效率低，错误率高，给公司带来财产损失，甚至威胁员工生命安全。 2) 提高公司效率可以通过其他途径，比如调整公司运营策略，改进公司管理，引进新技术和优秀人才等。
[V.01, 20150919]
The arguer’s view seems to be sound and convincing at first glance that a business can be prosper by only hiring people who sleep less than 6 hours per night. To support this recommendation, he or she provides the result of a recent survey about the association between average number of hours among Mentian advertising executives and the success of their firms. But I’m afraid his or her argument can hardly bear further considering because there are several flaws in it.
First of all, the arguer fails to provide strong evidence to convince us the credibility of the result of the survey. We find no sign of that the surveyor sampled an available proportion of executives, and did so randomly across the entire spectrum. It is entirely possible that the executives questioned are quite old, and they would need less sleep. But more other executives should guarantee more than eight hours of sleep per night to ensure they can work highly effective on the second day. Thus, unless the survey is fully representative valid and reliable, it cannot be used to effectively show the relationship between sleeping hour and firm’s success.
Secondly, the result of the survey quoted by the arguer are neither convincing nor relevant. The fact that the executives sleep less is not sufficient for the prediction that their firm will be more profitable and grow faster. As we point out above, Maybe these less sleeping executives are quite old, having tremendous experience and a strong networking, can facilitate the development of a firm. But, a wise woman cannot cook a meal without rice, the successive of a firm chiefly centered in the quality and marketing needs of its product or service, and executive power of its common employees, etc.
Finally, even assuming that a firm can be successful by having a executive who need no more than 6 hours of sleep per night, the arguer fails to weigh the necessary and disadvantage thoroughly of only hiring people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night. Since there are likely all kinds of difference between executives and common staff. It’s entire possible that sleeping less hour can lead to a less efficient, but higher mistake rate work, and this could cause extreme losses in life and money. Additionally, there could be a myriad of other solutions, such as to adapt marketing strategy, improve management, introduce new technology, hire talented persons, etc. Therefore, without considering of such possibilities, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude that a business wants to prosper should hire only people who sleep less than 6 hours per night.
In sum, it’s unwise to make rash decision on only hiring people who sleep no more than 6 hours per night to ensure the success of a business. To bolster the recommendation, the arguer should provide more other information about the relation between staff sleep hours and success of a business.
"A recent study rating 300 male and female Mentian advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. These results suggest that if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
[提纲]
1. 样本比例是否足够，样本是否足够随机？也许survey选取的样本大多是年龄偏大的人群，所以会比较少眠，但对大部分人而言平均每晚的睡觉时间还是需要维持8小时以上，才能精力充沛，更高效率地工作。
2. CEO每晚睡眠时间和公司利润之间的关系。因为可能像1所述，这些睡眠少的CEO年龄偏大，所以相对社会阅历多一些，人脉广一些，对公司发展会有所帮助。 但巧妇难为无米之炊，一家公司能否盈利，主要还是看公司产品或服务质量，市场需求，公司员工执行力等。
3.即使公司睡眠少的CEO能带来更高的利润，建议也未必有效，甚至会有副作用。1) CEO 不能代表所有员工， 有些岗位上的员工需要高质量长时间的睡眠， 如果睡眠时间少，会使得员工效率低，错误率高，给公司带来财产损失，甚至威胁员工生命安全。 2) 提高公司效率可以通过其他途径，比如调整公司运营策略，改进公司管理，引进新技术和优秀人才等。
[V.01, 20150919]
The arguer’s view seems to be sound and convincing at first glance that a business can be prosper by only hiring people who sleep less than 6 hours per night. To support this recommendation, he or she provides the result of a recent survey about the association between average number of hours among Mentian advertising executives and the success of their firms. But I’m afraid his or her argument can hardly bear further considering because there are several flaws in it.
First of all, the arguer fails to provide strong evidence to convince us the credibility of the result of the survey. We find no sign of that the surveyor sampled an available proportion of executives, and did so randomly across the entire spectrum. It is entirely possible that the executives questioned are quite old, and they would need less sleep. But more other executives should guarantee more than eight hours of sleep per night to ensure they can work highly effective on the second day. Thus, unless the survey is fully representative valid and reliable, it cannot be used to effectively show the relationship between sleeping hour and firm’s success.
Secondly, the result of the survey quoted by the arguer are neither convincing nor relevant. The fact that the executives sleep less is not sufficient for the prediction that their firm will be more profitable and grow faster. As we point out above, Maybe these less sleeping executives are quite old, having tremendous experience and a strong networking, can facilitate the development of a firm. But, a wise woman cannot cook a meal without rice, the successive of a firm chiefly centered in the quality and marketing needs of its product or service, and executive power of its common employees, etc.
Finally, even assuming that a firm can be successful by having a executive who need no more than 6 hours of sleep per night, the arguer fails to weigh the necessary and disadvantage thoroughly of only hiring people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night. Since there are likely all kinds of difference between executives and common staff. It’s entire possible that sleeping less hour can lead to a less efficient, but higher mistake rate work, and this could cause extreme losses in life and money. Additionally, there could be a myriad of other solutions, such as to adapt marketing strategy, improve management, introduce new technology, hire talented persons, etc. Therefore, without considering of such possibilities, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude that a business wants to prosper should hire only people who sleep less than 6 hours per night.
In sum, it’s unwise to make rash decision on only hiring people who sleep no more than 6 hours per night to ensure the success of a business. To bolster the recommendation, the arguer should provide more other information about the relation between staff sleep hours and success of a business.
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