Fiscal Year 2019 USCIS最新情况update

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今天看到了一个超级不要脸的机构叫DreamBigCareer,在公众号里大肆抄袭本文和大家的回复……还用此来给自己的课程打广告。醉了





5/15:
[align="left"]USCIS has completed data entry for all fiscal year 2019 H-1B cap-subject petitions selected in our computer-generated random selection process. USCIS will now begin returning all H-1B cap-subject petitions that were not selected. Due to the high volume of filings, USCIS cannot provide a definite time frame for returning unselected petitions. USCIS asks petitioners not to inquire about the status of their cap-subject petitions until they receive a receipt notice or an unselected petition is returned. USCIS will issue an announcement once all the unselected petitions have been returned.[/align][align="left"]Additionally, USCIS may transfer some Form I-129 H-1B cap subject petitions between the Vermont Service Center and the California Service Center to balance the distribution of cap cases. If your case is transferred, you will receive notification in the mail. After receiving the notification, please send all future correspondence to the center processing your petition.[/align]


5/14: 楼主今天毕业。。。太阳底下两眼昏花,一开始打错了。。。把514打成了512.。。
updated numbers as of now are as below:
EAC = 48,784
WAC = 47,352
Total = 96,136

- Updated at 11:00 AM EST



5/11:两边都没有消息……






5/10 截止今晚八点:
EAC = 47,256
WAC = 46,245
Total = 93,501

*大家不要惊慌,如果data entry完成了,USCIS会发公告的。没有发就是还没录完*

IG:

5/10/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in for all types of cases.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 60% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 66% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 15% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 3% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)





5/9
截止今晚八点:
EAC = 46,138
WAC = 45,254
Total = 91,393
5/9一天只更新了1300个cases.

IG还没有任何更新..

截止今早九点:
EAC = 45,786
WAC = 44,253
Total = 90,039
5/8增加了3000个cases,远少于之前每天的6000个。data entry应该这周就会结束了?


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5/8 今早9点:


EAC = 44,234
WAC = 42,841
Total = 87,075

- Updated at 9:00 AM EST

IG律所:

5/7/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in from both Vermont and California today for AD and from Vermont only for non-AD. We also received our first Requests for Evidence so it looks like USCIS has begun the adjudication process for those selected.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 60% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 62% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 12% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)



5/4

(1) Slack里的Receipts个数:

EAC = 39,728
WAC = 37,925
Total = 77,653



(2) IG律所的数据:
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 53% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 51% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 4% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)


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5/3的更新:

(1) Slack里的Receipts个数:
EAC = 35,896
WAC = 36,123
Total = 72,019

比昨天增加了~6000个cases


(2) 根据地里小伙伴@1point3acres.com 的消息,FY 2019 H1B已经有approve的了。

(3) IG律所的数据:

5/3/18 UPDATE: Receipts came in from both Vermont and California today for only AD.

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 52% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 50% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)



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5/2的更新:

Slack里的Receipts个数:
EAC = 32,785
WAC = 33,289
Total = 66,074
比昨日增加了~6000个cases,虽然不知道今年具体会抽多少个,但是可以预计的是,如果在8W5之后的某一天,突然每日增速降低到一日几百个cases,那基本上就代表着结束了。之后+3-5天 SEVP, SEVIS, CHECK还没有任何消息,基本凉。。



有两个回复想首页置顶一下:
@1point3acres.com 的回复,IG今年80%AD 20%RD。
@1point3acres.com 的推算,IG今年1388 AD and 347 RD。
所以可能IG的RD手气都不太好?手动再见了。。

IG律所的数据:
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 48% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 46% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)


然后手头上还有好多个H1B抽签群,里面也有些统计,但是样本都太小了,就不放出来了。。。




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5/1的更新:
Slack里的Receipts更新:
EAC = 29,944
WAC = 30,544
Total = 60,488

另外,IG根据他们律所寄出申请的总数和目前收到纸质receipts的对比:

  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 42% of our cases filed as AD/VT (Advanced Degree-masters / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 45% of our cases filed as AD/CA (Advanced Degree-masters / California Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/VT (Regular-bachelors / Vermont Service Center)
  • We have received I-797 receipt notices in 0% of our cases filed as non-AD/CA (Regular-bachelors / California Service Center)

结果相当Very interesting,IG律所没有收到任何Regular receipt。 让我们暂时忘记 IG律所体量是个谜的情况下,45/42%已经很 接近于 在抽8W5的情况下Advanced degree抽中的理论概率了。


However, 地里确实有帖子表明(1)自己是Regular申请 and (2)律所已经收到了Receipt。目前Regular最早的Receipt是4/18。


暂时的结果有以下几个:
首先楼主要承认个错误,好像slack里的不是USCIS的员工,因为他以前名字好像叫USCIS INSIDER....误...那位大哥写了个爬虫爬USCIS的case website

然后楼主和@placeholder看了那位三哥的爬虫之后,发现了一个BUG:他统计方法来源于计算I129的receipts个数。但是 H1B Transfer file的也是I129,在只统计I129的情况下,似乎会把Transfer的数字也统计下去。


If 我们相信Slack里的阿三大哥通过某种手段把Transfer的I129给去掉了:
(1) 我们可以知道IG律所Regular cap的命都不太好,甚至抽Regular的人命都不太好.... 或者
(2) 我们推断:今年中签的提醒顺序可能被修改了:从原来的先AD CAP再RG CAP混发,变为了:先大量AD DEGREE再大量RG DEGREE?....
ELSE:
我们可以推测H1B Receipts目前发出去的应该少于6W个 并且 多抽了N多H1B petitions,才导致的目前的情况。那么每日多抽了多少了?4/12号 USCIS一共处理了1230个I129,那么按照worst case来算,1230个全是transfer,没有一个是new H1B的话,最少的Receipts数应该是60488-1230*16 = 40808. 楼主跑了4/11 WAC3000个cases,其中有41个是H1B Transfer,还剩下7000个IP 被block了....瞎几把算一下41/3000*10000 = 137. 姑且算60488 - 137*2*16 = 56104

由于楼主相信科学,特意去查了IG FY2018和FY2017的数据,
FY2018 Timeline:
(1) 4/18/2018:IG开始更新Receipt情况
(2) 4/21/2018:IG收到了第一个Regular Cap Receipt,当时AD 13%, 16%; RD 1%, 0%.
(3) 4/27/2018:IG达到了FY 2019的Advanced Cap中签率,当时AD 47%, 36%; RD 13%, 11%.


FY2017 Timeline:
比较窒息的是FY 2017是有PP的,所以会在抽中的时候有邮件提醒,该timeline有点崩溃:
(1) 4/13/2018:IG开始收到Email,当日白天AD 48%, 32%; RD 0%, 0%. 晚上AD 48%, 32%; RD 15%, 9%
(2) 之后几日:流水账式balbalblabla

我觉得,真相只有一个!
那就是:楼主真的很努力。抽中了还不忘大家。



4/30:
EAC = 25,331
WAC = 26,698
Total = 52,029


4/27 Updated: 楼主今天抽到了 by 打电话给SEVIS
EAC = 23,127
WAC = 24,546
Total = 47,673

4/26 Updated: (# Receipts until 4/25 midnight) 楼主今天还是没有抽到。。

EAC: 20,678
WAC: 21,754
Total: 42,432


4/25 Updated: (# Receipts until 4/24 midnight) 楼主今天没有抽到
EAC: 18,878
WAC: 20,206
Total: 39,084


4/24 Update:
EAC: 15,468
WAC: 17,447

Total: 32,915
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从阿三slack里偷偷搬运到了点消息,希望对大家有用。
4/23 Updated numbers are below:[align="left"]EAC: 12,306[/align][align="left"]WAC: 15,060[/align]
[align="left"]Total: 27,366[/align]
之后有爆出每天寄出的receipts的详细分布:
12 WAC 140: WAC1814050592: WAC1814052727 718
13 WAC 141: WAC1814150882: WAC1814153906 1479
14 WAC 142: WAC1814250000: WAC1814251894 1384
16 WAC 143: WAC1814350228: WAC1814354095 2323
17 WAC 144: WAC1814450145: WAC1814454213 2212
18 WAC 145: WAC1814550467: WAC1814554585 1917
19 WAC 146: WAC1814650164: WAC1814654581 2390
20 WAC 147: WAC1814750000: WAC1814754255 1144
21 WAC 148: WAC1814850026: WAC1814852112 1493

12 EAC 135 EAC1813551222: EAC1813552153 512
13 EAC 136 EAC1813650000: EAC1813652965 1340
16 EAC 137 EAC1813750088: EAC1813753524 1717
17 EAC 138 EAC1813850000: EAC1813853557 2210
18 EAC 139 EAC1813950000: EAC1813953466 2290
19 EAC 140 EAC1814050000: EAC1814053734 2304
20 EAC 141 EAC1814150000: EAC1814153244 1933

第一列是日期
第二列是center code
第三列是BDay
第四列第五列是case number 的range
第六列是当天处理的总数

希望大家都抽中..
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